Preview: Wasps vs Exeter, Aviva Premiership Final

Twickenham, Saturday 14:30

Another Aviva premiership season draws to a close this Saturday as Exeter take on Wasps in the showpiece final at Twickenham.  So what to expect?

The biggest surprise about the Aviva Premiership final is not so much the teams playing in it but the one that isn’t: Saracens.  Saracens looked more nailed on than Jesus on Good Friday to make the final but instead suffered a reverse vs Exeter in the last minute of an epic semi that sees the Devon club reach their second final in a row.  Handily for the Chiefs, they have already put away the team that beat thelast year leaving Saracens go into the summer with software patch required to fix whatever glitch caused this.

In the other semi, Wasps overcame a spirited Leicester side, brought closer together in their response to the tragic news about club captain Tom Youngs’ wife to set up the clash between the teams that finished top two in the league on what promises to be the hottest day of the year in London.

Wasps have led the Aviva Premiership from the front for a large portion of the back end of the season and often look irresistible; their backline is packed full of talent and under coach Dai Young they are encouraged to play an inspiring style of rubgy that is diametrically opposed to his grumpy phizog.  But, there has been a significantly brittle nature to them in the past month or so, conceding plenty – even the Bristol attack put 21 past them last month, Bristol! – and struggling to eventually close out games.  On top of this their usually formidable attacking game has seemingly been replaced by a succession of handling errors and poor decision making and in the semi-final their lineout resembled a drunk rowing team taking turns to head-butt a pub ceiling.

Exeter meanwhile have been winning for a very long time, almost in spite of themselves as their ability to score points is nearly matched by their capacity to concede them.  In their past five matches their average score is 33-22 meaning most matches Exeter are involved in are well worth a watch, if only to gaze upon the litany of mesmerizingly awful haircuts that permeate their team.  But what these scorelines demonstrate is how Exeter’s game evolved this season from the previously forward dominated  style to the more mixed, all-park attack they now possess.

Exeter’s forwards were towering in all aspects vs Saracens, with the likes of Don Armand and Geoff Parling leading the way.  This pack will come up against a talented but smaller and less destructive Wasps eight featuring a back row low on form and the already mentioned problematic lineout.

Once it gets behind it is difficult to predict what will happen.  Plenty of tries is a certainty with the likes of Dan Robson, Elliot Daly, Le Roux, Cipriani, Gopperth and Wade lining up for Wasps and the less heralded but nevertheless effective Steenson, Devoto, Nowell, Woodburn and the criminally underrated fullback, Phil Dollman, for Exeter.

If recent Wasps form is a measure expect them to waste a significant amount of possession but still score tries, while Exeter throw interceptions but still manage to score more than 30 points.   The last time these two played each other it finished in a 35 points a piece draw.  There will be plenty for the crowd to cheer about on either side during the 80 minutes as the sun beats down.   Exeter’s bench packs more punch as well.

Given the try for try nature of the game it may ultimately become a kicking competition, and in a kick for kick shoot-out then Gopperth probably beats Steenson.  However, Exeter’s pack power suggests more penalties awarded to them giving the victorian pickpocket-faced Irish ten a few more shots.   Exeter may just sneak it.

Wasps:

Le Roux, Wade, Daly, Gopperth, Bassett, Cipriani, Robson; Mullen, Taylor, Swainston, Launchbury (captain), Symons, Haskell, Young, Hughes.

Replacements: Johnson, McIntyre, Moore, Myall, Thompson, Simpson, Leiua, Halai.

Exeter:

Dollman, Nowell, Whitten, Devoto, Woodburn, Steenson, Townsend; Moon, Cowan-Dickie, Williams, Dennis, Parling, Horstman, Armand, Waldrom.

Replacements: Yeandle, Rimmer, Francis, Lees, Simmonds, Chudley, Slade, Campagnaro.

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